Beyond Brexit

Monday, December 10 – Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruling on whether the United Kingdom can unilaterally revoke Article 50 (08:00 GMT); House of Commons debate on Brexit deal continues from around 15:30/16:30 GMT

Tuesday, December 11 – Meaningful Vote debate concludes followed by votes (votes should commence around 20:45 GMT)

Wednesday, December 12 – Prime Minister Questions (PMQs), followed by potential statement by Prime Minister on next steps

In 1957, the six EU founding members–Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg—agreed to settle their conflicts around a table rather than on the battlefields. We are now days away from the 60th anniversary of the EC Treaty Rome. Like all anniversaries, the Rome Summit will be a natural time to reflect on the last 60 years at a time when BREXIT and the fear of a “domino effect” across Europe is driving change. The European Commission’s “White Paper on the Future of Europe” (“Paper”) was written to help the European Council decide on a course of action by year-end, with a view to implementing a plan to be rolled out in time for the European Parliament elections in June 2019. Whilst BREXIT is only indirectly referred to, references to “EU27” abound, alongside references to the refugee crisis, terrorism, the global financial crisis and “new global powers”. The EU may still be home to the world's largest single market, however “Europe's place in the world is shrinking.” This comes at a time when newer powers such as China, Brazil, India and Mexico, rise, and when the United States becomes more inward-looking. Other notable challenges include unemployment and friction over borders.

On 23 June 2016, the UK shocked the world, and perhaps itself, when it voted in favour of a “Brexit” from the European Union. While the referendum result has brought significant uncertainty to the financial services sector, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has made it clear that, from a regulatory perspective, it is “business as usual”. Indeed, it is clear that firms cannot afford to stand still in the wake of the referendum result, since financial regulation has, as always, continued to evolve.

Political changes: Monitor the impact of major political changes, including the U.S. presidential and congressional elections and Brexit

The results of the U.S. presidential election are historic and unanticipated, and they will have significant economic, political, legal and social implications. As the nation prepares for the Trump administration, many uncertainties remain about how the incoming administration will govern. President-elect Trump has stated that he will pursue vast changes in diverse regulatory sectors, including international trade, health care, energy and the environment. These changes are likely to reshape the legal landscape in which companies must conduct their business, both in the United States and abroad.

Executive Summary

Earlier today, the High Court of Justice ruled that the U.K. government does not have the constitutional capacity to trigger the U.K.'s withdrawal from the European Union without further primary legislation being passed. This decision is likely to delay, potentially significantly, the filing of the U.K.'s Article 50 notice with the European Council, further extending the uncertainty over the timing and the terms of the U.K.'s exit from the European Union (“EU”).

In the aftermath of Brexit, the United Kingdom is faced with the challenge of negotiating a relationship with the European Union that balances Single Market access with national control over the movement of goods and workers. This article is the last of a four-part series examining the three models for a future U.K.-EU relationship.