United States Solar – The Shift from Utility Scale to Distributed Generation

Mar 24, 2014

Reading Time : 2 min

In recent years, fewer power purchase agreements (PPAs) have become available for potential projects. In some states, utilities are issuing fewer requests for proposals for large scale PPAs as they come closer to achieving their state-mandated renewable portfolio standards with current PPAs. For example, the three major California utilities (San Diego Gas & Electric, Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison) have a surplus of MWs contracted under PPAs that will allow them to meet their 33 percent RPS requirement even if all of the projects do not move forward. In other states, the lack of enforcement mechanisms for renewable portfolio mandates have not required the utilities to make power purchase agreements available for renewable projects. 

In addition, the significant drop in PPA prices for renewable energy projects in the past five years1 makes large-scale solar projects less attractive to investors and more difficult to finance. Utilities have even reopened the PPA price in certain cases as projects move from the development stage to the construction stage. The uncertainty caused by the lack of supply of PPAs and lower PPA prices have made large scale projects more difficult to finance. Distributed generation projects have a guaranteed offtaker and, due to their lower costs, are easier to finance or do not require financing at all.

Reduced equipment and installation costs are another impetus for the shift of the market to distributed generation. The cost of utility scale solar decreased by 15 percent in 2013 from $2.27/W in Q4 2012 to $1.96/W in Q4 2013.2  As the cost of equipment declines, the economies of scale once gained from large-scale solar projects are dampened by the cost of acquiring land and navigating difficult regulatory regimes. Distributed generation projects are not subject to environmental, permitting or biological testing requirements.

Finally, the reduction of the ITC from 30 percent to 10 percent at the beginning of 2017 is another driving force. The ITC has been an important piece of financing for utility scale projects. The decrease will create a gap in financing for projects that are not online by the end of 2016. In sum, any utility scale project not currently under development will only be able to qualify for the reduced ITC rate.

The distributed generation market is not without challenges. A number of states (including Arizona, Colorado and California) are considering changes to their net metering policies that could adversely impact the benefit of distributed generation systems to homeowners and businesses. However, the distributed generation market is not anticipated to be significantly harmed by these changes since the decreasing cost of solar system installation is expected to offset these impacts.


1 For example, in the western United States, PPA prices for PV solar projects were approximately $150/MW in 2008 and recently were approximately $60/MW. 

2 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report: 2013 Year-in-Review, GTM Research and Solar Energy Industries Association.

Share This Insight

Previous Entries

Speaking Energy

May 22, 2025

On May 19, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) finalized its 2024 LNG Export Study: Energy, Economic and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports (the 2024 Study) through the release of a Response to Comments on the 2024 Study. The Response to Comments concludes that the 2024 Study, as augmented through public comments submitted on or before March 20, 2025, supporting a finding that liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports serve the public interest. With the comment process complete, DOE will move forward with final orders on pending applications to export LNG to non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) countries.

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

May 20, 2025

On Thursday, May 15, the Senate Commerce, Science & Transportation Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, Freight, Pipelines and Safety held a hearing titled, “Pipeline Safety Reauthorization: Ensuring the Safe and Efficient Movement of American Energy.” The hearing examined legislative priorities for reauthorizing the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

April 15, 2025

On April 9, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order (EO)1 directing several federal agencies and subagencies that regulate energy, environmental, and conservation matters,2 including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Department of Energy (DOE), to establish conditional sunset dates for “regulations governing energy production.” The stated objective of the EO is to require agencies to periodically reexamine their regulations to ensure that they continue to serve the public good. For FERC, the order covers regulations promulgated under the Federal Power Act (FPA), the Natural Gas Act (NGA) and the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act (FUA)3, as amended, while DOE must consider regulations promulgated under the Atomic Energy Act (AEA), the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct 1992), the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), as amended (collectively the Covered Regulations).4 To the extent the DOE has been directed to promulgate regulations under various sections of the NGA, FPA and FUA, and FERC has been directed to promulgate regulations specific to the statutes attributed to the DOE in the EO, the EO is silent. The EO expressly does not apply to those “regulatory permitting regimes authorized by statute.”5

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

April 10, 2025

On April 8, 2025, President Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) directing the Department of Energy (DOE) to take steps to expand the use of its emergency authority under Federal Power Act (FPA) Section 202(c) to require the retention of generation resources deemed necessary to maintain resource adequacy within at risk-regions of the bulk power system regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).1 The EO appears to envision a more active role for DOE in overseeing and supporting the resource adequacy of the grid that deviates from the historic use of Section 202(c) and touches on issues at the intersection of state and federal authority over resource planning.

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

March 10, 2025

On March 5, 2025, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) approved Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC’s (GPLNG) request to extend a deadline to begin exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its terminal facility currently under construction in Sabine Pass, Texas for 18 months, from September 30, 2025, to March 31, 2027 (the Order). The Order amends GPLNG’s two existing long-term orders authorizing the export of domestically produced LNG to countries with which the United States does and does not have free trade agreements (FTA).1  The Order does not amend the authorizations’ end date, which remains December 31, 2050. Under section 3 of the Natural Gas Act (NGA), the DOE may authorize exports to non-FTA countries following completion of a “public interest” review, whereas exports to FTA countries are deemed to be in the public interest and the DOE is directed to issue authorizations without modification or delay.

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

March 4, 2025

Join projects & energy transition partner Shariff Barakat at Infocast’s Solar & Wind, where he will moderate the “Tax Equity Market Dynamics” panel.

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

February 13, 2025

Oil & gas companies continue to identify and capitalize on opportunities related to the deployment of new energy technologies, with their approaches broadly maturing and coalescing around maximizing synergies, leveraging available subsidies and responding to regulatory drivers.

...

Read More

Speaking Energy

February 11, 2025

On January 30, 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC or the Commission) approved a Stipulation and Consent Agreement (Agreement) between the Office of Enforcement (OE) and Stronghold Digital Mining Inc. (Stronghold) resolving an investigation into whether Stronghold had violated the PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) tariff and Commission regulations by limiting the quantity of energy made available to the market to serve a co-located Bitcoin mining operation.1 This order appears to be the first instance of a public enforcement action involving co-located load and generation and comes at a time when both FERC and market operators2 are scrutinizing the treatment of co-located load due to the rapid increase in demand associated with data center development.

...

Read More

© 2025 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP. All rights reserved. Attorney advertising. This document is distributed for informational use only; it does not constitute legal advice and should not be used as such. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome. Akin is the practicing name of Akin Gump LLP, a New York limited liability partnership authorized and regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority under number 267321. A list of the partners is available for inspection at Eighth Floor, Ten Bishops Square, London E1 6EG. For more information about Akin Gump LLP, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP and other associated entities under which the Akin Gump network operates worldwide, please see our Legal Notices page.